Corrections in the US Equity Indexes and Sector Exchange-Traded Funds

Abstract

In this article, a rule-based definition of market corrections that depends on price volatility is proposed. This enables consistent comparison of corrections in different markets. Statistics of corrections in several US equity indexes and major US equity sector exchange-traded funds are compiled. According to the definition proposed in this work, the bear market of 2007–2009 had five distinct corrections, three of which exceeded 20%. It is shown that binary variables that account for market corrections improve accuracy of the ARMA-GARCH model for asset returns. Among other findings, volatility during market corrections has increased in recent years. The losses of the S&P 500 Growth Index during the market corrections before 2007 were mostly higher than the losses of the S&P 500 Value Index; however, this is not the case since 2007. Corrections in the US equity sector exchange-traded funds are determined by the sector-specific trends rather than by their volatility. The results obtained in this article may be useful for a better understanding of business cycles and optimal portfolio rebalancing among various equity sectors.

TOPICS: Exchange-traded funds and applications, mutual funds/passive investing/indexing

Key Findings

• • A rule-based definition of market corrections that depends on price volatility is proposed.

• • The statistics of corrections in several major US equity indexes and sector exchange-traded funds is compiled.

• • It is found that the binary variables that account for market corrections improve accuracy of the ARMA-GARCH model for asset returns.